Time to get back to work. After two and a half days of people like me spouting off about the death of the 2008-2009 season, the Raptors finally get a chance to go out and prove us all wrong.

The potential victim: The Charlotte Bobcats, who, at 4-9, are the second-worst team in the Eastern conference.

But… while the Raptors are coming off of two horrendous losses, and dealing with injuries to Jermaine O’Neal (who may not play) and Jose Calderon (who’ll play at less than 100), the Bobcats are coming off a big win over Philadelphia and likely getting their top scorer, Jason Richardson, back after two weeks off with a knee injury.

Given the Raps less than stellar play of late, you have to imagine their confidence coming into this game is at a serious low. If Richardson is healthy, and with DJ Augustin and Ray Felton playing great basketball, plus bombers in Adam Morrison and Matt Carrol not to mention Gerald Wallace… this is a team that has strengths that can exploit our weaknesses - perimeter D, and vulnerability to the drive-and-kick.

Still, as the Raptors showed in Charlotte two weeks ago, the Bobcats have no answer for Chris Bosh, none whatsoever. Bosh dominated the second half of that game, along with some help from Andrea Bargnani. In fact, Charlotte didn’t now how to handle Andrea that day, and now he’s starting so hopefully it creates even more of a mismatch. Even if he has to start at the centre spot - if O’Neal doesn’t play - Emeka Okafor doesn’t like guarding guys on the perimeter.

Taking a look at Bargnani’s numbers since he joined the starting lineup in the 3-spot, you can see they’re looking pretty good: 17 points per game, on 56% shooting - and that’s pretty impressive seeing as how almost half his attempts are from downtown (he’s shooting 46% behind the arc). He’s also adding 5.6 boards and one block per game.

Now, those aren’t exactly all-star numbers and maybe you’d like a 7-footer to get more boards. But they are superior to what Jamario Moon was providing; though he was shooting a respectable 48% (and 42% from downtown), Jamario was only scoring 7.6 per game with 3.5 boards. While scoring isn’t really his strong suit, last year he was getting more than 6 boards per game. If he’s not willing to go get some - and, has been pointed out ad nauseum, he’s going to bite on every pump fake the other team tries - he’s not contributing. Bargnani earned his starting role by playing solid defense every time he came off the bench.

As for the rest of the Raptors, Jermaine was playing well before he got hurt, and they continue to get career years from Chris Bosh (3rd in the NBA in ppg, 5th in rebounding) and Jose Calderon (2nd in assists, 1st in free throw percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio)… but they’re getting nothing from everyone else. If O’Neal doesn’t play - and even if he does, I assume he’ll be limited - someone is going to have to step up. Whether it be Parker, Kapono or Moon, or even Humphries, if the Raps want to win tonight, they need an above-average game from one of their supporting players. Bosh will be great, and I believe Bargnani has another big game in him, but whatever Calderon does will be offset by Augustin and Felton (Calderon struggled on D before he got hurt, now I’m pretty sure Larry Brown himself could beat him off the dribble), and you know one of Wallace or Richardson will have 30-plus.

Basically, I believe tonight’s game is in the Bobcats’ hands. The Raptors are banged up and in the dumps. If the Bobcats come out aggressive, if they establish the drive and kick game and only take the threes that are open as opposed to just launching bombs, they should beat Toronto.

Thankfully, Charlotte has shown itself to be inconsistent and impatient. If they continue to do that, and if Bosh gets going and Toronto gets just a little help from its supporting players, the Raptors should win.

Or maybe those factors all cancel each other out and we have a close game down the stretch, in which case, it comes down to who manages their timeouts, who draws up the better plays and who executes.

And you don’t really think Sam Mitchell’s going to outthink Larry Brown in a close game, do you?

Bobcats by 2.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 26th, 2008 at 2:16 pm and is filed under Game Previews, Toronto Raptors.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.