Archive for December 4th, 2008

From my earlier post it may seem like I think Sam Mitchell is the only reason this team has struggled so far this year, but I want to assure you, that’s not the case.

I think Bryan Colangelo needs to bear a chunk of the blame, and of course, the players do too.

Here’s how I break it down: Mitchell: 40%; Colangelo: 35%; Players: 25%.

I covered Mitchell’s part earlier: Team wasn’t prepared for games, no offensive creativity, bad/no playcalling down the stretch, odd substitution patterns, team appeared to be tuning him out.

The players deserve blame, of course, because clearly, they did not come to play every night. And you can lay some of that on Mitchell, for not preparing them, but at some point, as Mitchell said the other day, guys just need to come and play hard without being told to - that’s part of being a professional. And on top of that, you have players not answering their roles on offense (Calderon not turning the corner on screen and roll, Kapono not shooting threes, Moon not driving, O’Neal shooting too many fadeaways) and making dumb mistakes (Solomon leaving his feet to pass, Hump and his running one handers, etc.). They gotta accept responsibility too.

As for the rest, well, that’s gotta be on Colangelo. I talked about it a while ago, how this thin roster was not constructed with enough flexibility to make any moves, so if it stunk, we were essentially stuck with it. Also a problem that in today’s NBA, where the bigger bodies and advanced medical analysis mean more missed games, that it was considered a good idea to run with a 12-man roster.

And it’s been borne out, obviously, that there is a serious deficiency at the wing positions and that there is no one on the bench to help and no moves to be made to bring help in.

Here’s where I think BC’s biggest mistakes came:

1) First of all, letting Carlos Delfino walk away.

Now, I know they couldn’t re-sign him without going over the tax and you can absolutely argue that he’s not enough to go over the tax for. And of course hindsight is 20/20. But comparing him to the other wing players: He slashes more than Moon, Parker and Kapono combined, and although his overall shooting percentage was low (40%), he shot 38% from three and I guarantee that with regular, consistent minutes, he wouldn’t force as many shots.

Furthermore, he can play backup point guard. You could have brought in Roko, left Solomon to rot in Europe, and had Delfino as your third guard. And, he can rebound - 4.4 per game in 23 minutes is an excellent number.

Most important, he was a better defender than Kapono and equal to Moon and Parker last year. And since both of those guys have taken a step back on defense (which couldn’t be predicted, I know) Delfino surely would have been a better option right now.

Most important… he was the only guy on the team last year other than TJ Ford capable of his creating his own shot. Again, not always good shots, but again, with consistent playing time…

Either way, the Raptors now don’t have a single soul who can create, no one who can defend, a crappy backup PG, and a three point shooter who won’t shoot threes. Delfino could have helped out in every case. (The Raptors still hold Delfino’s rights, but by all accounts, his contract is 3 years/$12 million dollars without any out clauses. Meaning he’d have to negotiate a buyout to get out of his deal before 2011. Doesn’t seem likely.)

2) The other mistake, a much larger mistake, was buying out Jorge Garbajosa’s contract.

This was huge for two reasons. Number one, if - and I admit it was a big if - Garbajosa was able to get healthy and play, he could have provided the physical perimeter defender they sorely need. He’s also, as we all know, an incredibly smart basketball player, a good hustle and energy guy, who provides a lot of the “intangibles” the Raps are missing. Again, I don’t know if he’d ever be healthy enough to contribute (I note he’s averaging 9 points and 4 boards in Russia, but that’s a little different from NBA competition) but why not keep him around to see? And surely, another veteran presence around the locker room couldn’t hurt, could it?

But just as important (more important maybe?), he had a $4.3 million expiring contract. Even if he couldn’t play a minute, as we all know in today’s NBA, expiring contacts are like gold at the trading deadline, and having small contracts (relatively speaking) to trade gives you even more flexibility advantages. This is exactly the type of asset we don’t have to trade! Any team looking to dump salary would have looked right here, with $11 million in Garbo, Graham and Parker available, plus Hump and his two years. And you don’t think taking back an expiring or two would make a longer contract like Kapono’s more attractive in a package?

Why in the world Colangelo thought it’d be a good idea to buy out an expiring contract, instead of trying to trade it, is beyond me. Maybe it was outta respect for Garbo, but come on. This is a business. And this was a bad, bad GM move. I mean, seriously. This was like a Rob Babcock move. The Raptors got absolutely nothing out of this, except what, a savings of about a million dollars? Chump change. I’d rather have a trade asset.

So, those two mistakes were huge contributors to the problems the Raptors are having:

  • They have no perimeter D - which both could have helped with;
  • The bench is too thin - obviously, a couple of veterans never hurts;
  • They have minimal trade assets - Garbo’s contract, if not Garbo himself, would be of value;
  • The roster is at the minimum, so they can’t do a 2-for-1 trade - again, more bodies, more tradeable assets, means a trade is more likely.

Now, another factor was drafting Nathan Jawai in round 2; I know second round players are absolute crapshoots, but it might have been nice had they chosen a guy who could at least attempt to play. Sigh.

If he’d kept Delfino, kept Garbo, left Will Solomon under whatever rock he was under, drafted a raw 7-footer whose only job would need to be “hack Dwight Howard,” we’d have a 14-man roster with better perimeter defenders, more fouls to give, and some bargaining chips. And BC still could have brought on Hassan Adams to play cheerleader!

Instead we’ve got three good bigs plus Hump, five mediocre swingmen, a good PG backed up by a rookie and a guy who would struggle to make the D-league. Oh, and a 7-footer who hasn’t dressed once.

And next-to-no bargaining power to make a trade.

That, my friends, is all on Colangelo.

Should the roster be producing more wins? It looks like it - it looks like some playcalling and offensive creativity, combined with sustained effort, should have won at least two more games already this year (and avoided struggling in the close games they almost blew). So yes, I do believe - at this point - that a coaching will help.

But if this team continues to flounder under Jay Triano, if Triano puts in some new sets but they still struggle or appear listless, then it’ll be clear - it’s not the coaching, it’s the roster. And BC is going to have a hard time fixing it, because he’s left himself so few options.

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Well, yesterday was a big day. Big day for the Raptors. Sam Mitchell was fired after an 8-9 start - and let’s be honest, given the poor effort and blown leads, it’s a bad 8-9 start.

Was the timing right? From a PR standpoint, you can’t do much better than firing the coach after one of the worst losses in franchise history, on the west coast, to boot.

In addition, you have to figure that at 8-9, they’re still in the playoff chase - if they can survive this brutal stretch of the schedule - so if you’re going to make a coaching change, better to make it now then when you’re 12-20 and out of the race.

I simply can’t understand the people (Doug Smith, I’m looking at you) that keep saying “it’s too early.” It’s not - the season is slipping away. When does too early become “just right” and not “too late”? It’s a fine line, obviously, but I’d rather make the move too early than too late.

No, 8-9 isn’t bad on paper but look at the games - the blown leads, the poor effort, the lack of execution down the stretch.

Is it all on the coach? Of course not, but it starts there - the coach is the leader and if he can’t get the players to even play hard, then he’s gotta take some blame.

We all know Mitchell is not a great X’s and O’s guy, but it’s always been said that he’s a good motivator, the players respect him and play hard for him, etc.. But that no longer appeared to be the case, at least not this season, am I wrong? I count three zero-effort games: The first Hawks game, the second Celtics game, and Denver. I count two listless games where a few threes kept it respectable: The Lakers game and the second Sixers game. I count three blown leads where the team simply got lazy in the second half: Orlando, Boston, and New Jersey (which was at home, and featured the still-unbelievable twice-botched inbounds play). Then you’ve got the second Miami game that they very nearly blew after leading by 17, and the first Charlotte game that they slept through the entire first half and got down 16 before Bosh single-handedly brought them back to win. And in the second Atlanta game, they played great almost the entire game until the final two minutes when they almost blew a 9-point lead and it took the poor decision making of the Hawks to seal it.

So by my tally, that’s five games with entirely poor efforts, three games where they didn’t play hard for 48 and lost, and two games where they didn’t play hard for 48 and still managed to win, plus one they won despite not executing down the stretch. They’ve only won one game against a +.500 opponent (Atlanta) and aren’t putting even bad teams away with any authority. Also consider the 13-20 finish to last year and the 1-4 playoff run, and that’s a pretty bad stretch, no?

So I don’t think you can you say that Mitchell has them playing hard anymore. And if they’re not playing hard for him, and he’s not going to help them win with X’s and O’s… then what is he bringing to the table? Some fine suits and a lot of excuses, that’s what.

Now. I like Sam, don’t get me wrong, and I am going to miss him. A lot. He was entertaining, enjoyable, a good person and someone who never gave less than his best. He did improve as a coach, greatly, over the years, not just on the floor but also in his management of the team, changing the attitude of the team, dealing with the media, everything. And, up until recently, the Raptors always played hard. Always - just like Sam did.

But something obviously changed and they aren’t playing hard right now.

Going forward, do I really think getting rid of Sam is going to make a big difference? Probably not. As has been said many times many places, even a great coach like Phil Jackson would have trouble teaching Calderon how to stay in front of his man or Moon to stay on his feet on pump fakes. But I think we all feel Sam’s weak X’s and O’s meant the team struggled as much on offense as it did on defense.

If Jay Triano brings a few more plays to the playbook and manages to mix things up a little, the Raptors should, at the very least, manage to score a little more easily. And if you’re not using up all your energy on offense, maybe you’ve got a little more left for defense, no? That’s the hope that I have, at least.

Whether it’s more transition hoops, whether it’s plays that get Kapono, Parker or Calderon more open looks, whether it’s more post-ups for Bargnani when he’s playing smaller 3s… a team with Chris Bosh and Jermaine O’Neal and so many shooters on it should not struggle to get open shots. I hope Triano has something up his sleeve to solve that.

I also hope he gives the guys consistent minutes on a consistent basis. Time to stop judging guys on one missed shot or turnover. Either let them play through a good chuck and determine if they can learn from these mistakes or if they’re just bad players.

In my opinion, and in the opinion of many, Sam was never Bryan Colangelo’s guy. The two never saw eye-to-eye; they have distinctly different styles and philosophies, and Bryan, well, I gather Bryan has a bit of an ego and a “I know more basketball than you” air about him, so he probably wanted to bring his own guy in from day one.

But, it didn’t make sense to fire Sam right off the bat, in the last year of his contract, and have to swallow the cash - after all, no one expected the team to be any good in Bryan’s first year. But, it was - good enough to win 47 games and give Sam the Coach of the year Award.

And that, folks, was the worst possible thing that could have happened.

I think Bryan was expected maybe 38 wins and was simply going to let Sam walk at the end of the 2006-2007 season. Thanks for a good year, you did good enough to land another job, we’re going a different route, blah blah blah.. But he simply had to bring Sam back - you can’t let the coach of the year walk away.

And that set Bryan’s plan back. I think he was hoping to bring someone in that offseason - maybe Iavaroni, maybe Messina - but he’d lose face letting the coach of the year walk away. And maybe, like me, he thought Sam would continue to improve and that there was value in the continuity of having one voice.

But, obviously, that improvement never came and it looks like the voice was getting tuned out. The timing, unfortunately for Sam, is right. I applaud this move at this time - it was, I believe, 100 per cent necessary.

I wish Sam the best of luck. I really will miss him. It’s been four years plus a couple months we’ve had Sam as our coach. That’s a long time - longest tenure, and winningest, in Raptors history. He and Chris Bosh were the only remnants from the “old days” - the only people left on the team that coached/played with Vince Carter. And I won’t forget the 47 wins and the division title or the playoff series against the Nets, and I won’t forget being there to see him win coach of the year, and the way he brought all the players out to the court with him. Great moment. All the best to you, Sam, really.

And Jay, well, best of luck to you too! I hope you succeed because it will be great for Canada, but mostly, I hope you succeed so that we can see our beloved Raptors get back on the winning track.

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