Well, last night’s lacklustre effort hardly seems worth writing about. Yeah, they teased us with a fun comeback before Jason “Travelin’ Man” Kapono walked away with it, but to get down 24 after three quarters? Pathetic.

As the Raptors have struggled this season, I’ve wrestled with one question in my mind. Actually, there’ve been many questions, but one key one is this:

When does “there’s still time to turn it around” become “it’s too late to turn it around?”

You can never say never in pro sports, that’s for sure. Plenty of strange things have happened.

But barring something miraculous, unexpected, divine, whatever you want to call it, I think this moment, right now - the halfway point of the season, with the Raptors nine games under .500 - we have officially reached the “it’s too late” point.

It’s over.

Think about it. 16-25, with 41 games to go. That means a 24-17 record just to get to 40 wins, which is probably what will be required of the 8th playoff seed.

Given the Raptors’ play this season, do you - does anyone - think that is possible? Again, “anything is possible” but don’t forget another saying: “you are what your record says you are.” The Raps are a sub-par eastern conference team. They have one three-game winning streak all season, and four streaks of three or more losses. There’s simply zero evidence to suggest that this team can go on the sort of winning streak it requires to climb out of a nine-game hole. The team is too inconsistent, doesn’t defend or rebound well enough, to string wins together.

The Raptors won’t win 40 games and they won’t make the playoffs. Heck, even if they do win 40 and sneak in, by all accounts this season is an abject failure. The expectations, I believe, were 48 wins and a playoff round victory. So 40 wins and a playoff loss are still a failure.

For whatever reason - whether it was his own stubbornness or the lack of a good offer - Bryan Colangelo did not make a deal that could push the team to the next level. It was clear after Triano lost 8 of his first 10 games that Sam Mitchell wasn’t the issue - it was the talent on the roster. Yet Colangelo didn’t make a move to fix it. You can claim “patience” if you like, but you’d think a “basketball genius” like Colangelo would realize that a roster whose four best players are three power forwards and a point guard - along with the worst collection of wing players in the NBA - wasn’t going to win many games.

I know, hindsight is 20/20. Nevertheless, it shouldn’t take 40 games to realize the roster isn’t good enough - after 24 it was clear, and a move should have been made right away.

Now, it’s too late. Even a JO for Shawn Marion trade - which, even though I don’t like Marion in general, looks it would be perfect for both teams - would be too little too late.

Nine games under .500! I still can’t believe it’s gotten this bad. And the thing is, the schedule doesn’t really get better until after the all-star break. Before then, the Raps play Phoenix, Altanta, Detroit, Chicago, Sacramento, Jersey, Milwaukee, Orlando, Cleveland, the Lakers, New Orleans, Memphis, Minnesota, and San Antonio. That stretch encompasses two three-game road trips. How many of those are realisitically winnable? Four, maybe five? Even if we go 6-8 that leaves us a record of 22-33. 11 games under at the all-star break? Yeah, this thing just isn’t happening.

It’s a shame because all of this only makes Chris Bosh’s decision in 2010 a lot easier. In fact, he basically gets off scott-free - he may decide to bolt but no one will blame him, as the team didn’t add any talent around him. This isn’t a McGrady situation, where he leaves just as the team is getting good because he wants to get his own. This isn’t a Carter situation, where the team signed all the guys he wanted and then he complained it wasn’t good enough. This is Colangelo’s team, and Bosh signed his last extension with the understanding Colangelo would improve the roster. He hasn’t; all he’s done is add players that play the same position! So who can blame Bosh for leaving? Not me.

So, we get to struggle through, will miss the playoffs and end up picking, what, 10th, in a weak draft? A no-impact player who’s gonna sit on our roster taking up cap space. Great.

Meanwhile, without an O’Neal trade, we’ll still be over the cap in the summer, with a huge hole at shooting guard (Parker, Graham and Moon will all be free agents, although Graham has a team option). There’ll be about an 8-million dollar gap between the payroll level (about $64 mil) and the luxury tax (probably around $72 million), so the Raptors can use their MLE on someone, but are they going to get a starting two-guard for that, and fill out the bench (Solomon and Voskuhl will also be gone). Now, I believe we can bring Delfino back (as a restricted free agent, we can sign him to whatever and still have the full MLE) but either way, the team won’t go over the cap level, so… replace Parker with Delfino, the minimum salary scrubs with other minimum salary scrubs… and essentially, you’ve got the same team next year that you have this year.

Here’s some Report Cards on how they’ve done and what we can hope to see going forward:

Andrea Bargnani: C
Has been awesome this month. But, was completely awful in December, after being average in November. So, overall, just average. Big question is, can he stay on track and improve and not backslide? Right now, he looks like the starting center of the future, no doubt about it. Please, Andrea, keep it up.

Chris Bosh: C+
Unbelievable first month, underwhelming second month, great third month. Regardless of play, not producing wins, and that’s what franchise players do. Needs to develop some sort of go-to move if we’re going to keep giving him the ball down by 2 with 10 seconds left.

Jose Calderon: C
Still takes care of the ball exceptionally well and gives it to guys in good position to succeed. But overall, has not performed at the same level he was at last year. His shooting percentages are down and he is not as aggressive, doesn’t turn the corner on the PNR the way he did last year. Hopefully that’s due to his injury problems, and it’ll come around. He’s potentially the second-best offensive player on the team, he needs to assert himself more on that end - especially if he continues to be a liability on the defensive end.

Jermaine O’Neal: B
When he’s been out there, Jermaine has been pretty solid. Other than a few instances where he’s forced his offense unnecessarily, his shots have been decent, and defensively, he’s done, well, about as well as anyone can when the perimeter is a giant sieve. You certainly can’t question his effort or passion when he’s on the floor. If only he could STAY on the floor! Mr. Glass just gets injured way too easily. If it’s true that he’s been helping Andrea out in practice, and that he’ll come off the bench (for now) as was reported this week, then I have even more respect for him. Still don’t understand why he can’t sit with the team on the bench, though.

Jamario Moon, Joey Graham, Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono: F
Collectively, the worst corps of swingmen in the NBA. Moon is a slasher who settles for jumpers, Kapono is a shooter who tries to slash. Joey has had good flashes, but still makes too many mistakes. Parker gives his all but has clearly lost a step; he’d be a great sixth or seventh man, the James Posey type role, only he’s the only capable guy in the whole group so he’s got to start, and is asked to do more than what is reasonable for a player his age and caliber. Thankfully, only Kapono is under contract next year, but can they find anyone decent to replace the rest? This has been the Raptors’ Achilles heel the past two-and-a-half years.

Kris Humphries, Jake Voskuhl: D
Everyone keeps expecting Hump to embrace his role as board-crasher / body banger, but he seems insistent that he’s got more offensive game than he really does. Hopefully, Voskuhl is teaching him that effort and scrappiness will get you the PT. Hump will be back next year; will he get it by then? Until he does, he’ll be 10th man. If he embraces the role, and plays within himself, he could be a solid contributor. Voskuhl has committed some hard fouls, and, um, well… that’s about it. But, that’s his role, he knows it, and plays it well.

Roko Ukic: A
The most (only?) pleasant surprise on the team. I expected very little from him this season, but he’s exceeded those expectations 100-fold. He still can’t shoot and he’s gotta learn some tricks for finishing at the rim. But he’s fast, tall, has good defensive fundamentals, and, most important for a young PG, has confidence in himself and his abilities - he’s not intimidated and doesn’t back down from anyone. He’s the only Raptor who consistently takes the ball strong to the hoop - even though the only scouting report out there on him is “lay off and make him shoot,” he still finds a way to get there. Another thing that’s impressed me, he doesn’t pick up his dribble under pressure and he never stops moving, which are two regular rookie PG mistakes - they get pushed into traps when they slow up. If he develops that jumper, he’ll be, at the least, a very good backup PG in the NBA. If he develops range, puts on strength to finish at the hoop, and continues to develop his court sense? Well then the sky’s the limit.

Will Solomon: D
Has been marginally better the past three games, which amounts to “not making me want to stick my head in the oven,” but hey, progress is progress. The problem is that he regularly makes the wrong decision - drives when he should shoot, shoots when he should pass, picks up his dribble, misses the open man, waits too long for the entry, passes to the wrong man… etc. Even that ridiculous haircut is a terrible decision. Hey, for about the same price we could have had the original NBA fauxhawk, Damon Jones, and he would have been much better. Alas.

Hassan Adams: F
I don’t even know where to begin with this one. He won’t be missed.

Nathan Jawai: N/A
Obviously, you can never expect too much from a second-round pick, but it would be nice to see him play. Also, would have been nice for the Raptors to give him a physical before signing him to a two-year contract… sigh. But that’s not his fault, and he gets credit for being with the team every day (unlike say, Jermaine O’Neal) and, from all accounts, working hard to get into shape. Here’s hoping he gets some garbage time minutes in the final two months of the season.

Overall, those grades are low and maybe the individual performances aren’t that bad. But this is a team and the only thing that really matters is winning, and this team isn’t doing that so everyone has to be held accountable.

So, yes, I’m very disappointed in the team’s play this season and not too optimistic about the future. The next 41 games might be a real drag, at least without a trade to spice things up.

But, at the end of the day, as always, I’ll support the team through thick and thin! And I’ll never support tanking; winning is the only thing that matters. So, let’s go Raps! Get out there and win some more games!

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 17th, 2009 at 10:55 am and is filed under Game Wrap-ups, General Raptors, Toronto Raptors.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.