What can you say about two teams that have played each other three times already? Especially when each team has one easy victory and the other time, it was one of the most thrilling basketball games of the year?
As I’ve discussed before, the Raptors and Nets really had a chance to be a great rivalry, what with the trading of Vince Carter to New Jersey in 2004. Unfortunately the Raptors sucked the next two years; hard to have a rivalry when one side can barely win 30 games. Then in 2006-2007, both teams were pretty good, and they met in a classic playoff series.
But then the Nets sucked last year, and now, they both kinda suck. Fighting over the final playoff spot isn’t quite the same as fighting over a division title. Is a one playoff series a rivalry?
So, now you’ve got two mediocre teams going head to head, and when you look at what we’ve already seen- one classic game, two crappy games - you can expect tonight will likely be more of the latter. I mean, let’s face it, neither one of these teams is setting the world on fire. The Raps are 8-15 since their last meeting; the Nets are 8-14, and both teams have lost seven of their past 10. Not exactly seizing the moment, are they? (Each team also holds the “distinction” of having lost to the “Thunder”… ugh.)
Still, I guess this game does have meaning. The Raps are clawing for that playoff spot and they need to beat the teams in front of them; New Jersey is one of them. They also need all the wins they can get before they play the murderer’s row of Orlando, Cleveland, LA and New Orleans. For the Nets, well, same deal - they gotta keep beating the bad teams to hold their ground.
This is the Nets first home game back after a four game Midwestern trip. Generally, teams are either so happy to be home they blow the opponent away, or else they’re so tired they come out flat and get killed. I have to say, as much as I’m down on the Raps this year, I like them in this game, and the latter point is a big reason. The Nets already appeared tired in their Monday loss to the Thunder (Harris and Carter, combined 6-29), probably went out last night to celebrate VC’s birthday (I somehow doubt they went out and celebrated in Oklahoma City on Monday, his actual birthday), and now have to play a game against a well-rested Toronto team.
Meanwhile the Raps’ve had big leads on the Nets all three times they’ve played; yes, they blew them twice but I would really like to believe they’ve learned from their mistakes, and if they get up on the Nets this time, I believe fatigue will hold the Nets off from making a comeback.
Not only that, but I believe Andrea Bargnani will be a huge factor in this game. He was pretty invisible (coming off the bench) in the two meetings, but now that he’s starting, and his confidence appears to be at an all-time high, I think he’ll have more of an impact. Who on the Nets can guard his inside-outside attack? Brook Lopez? Ryan Anderson? Look, both those guys are having solid rookie years but can they hang with Bargnani on the perimeter? No way. Unless he makes it easy on them by bricklaying, he’s got a major advantage.
I suspect Anderson will start out on Bargnani and Lopez on Bosh; Lopez can be physical and bang on Bosh, and since Lawrence Frank wrote the book on defending Bosh (remember when Jason Collins and Mikki Moore completely took Bosh out of the playoffs two years ago?) I expect he’s passed the lessons onto young Brook - get up on him, hit him hard, force him to drive. Bosh HAS to realize he’s got the quickness advantage on Lopez (or anyone else on the Nets) and take advantage. Much like Bargnani, this one’s all on Bosh - if he does what he’s supposed to do, the Nets can’t stop him.
I guess the real question is whether the Raptors can stop Carter and Harris. Harris has abused Calderon in the Nets’ two victories and Carter, as we have come to expect, has had one good game, one great game, and one crappy game (and please don’t make me go into the Vince Carter Stats AGAIN). I suspect he’s due for another “good” game, probably about 26 points, 7 boards and 5 assists on 10-18 shooting. Parker’s gonna have a long night, because I bet he’ll see time guarding both Harris and Carter… poor bastard.
If I’m the Raps I simply lay off Harris and make him beat you from the outside. He’s a decent shooter but I’d much rather have him taking jumpers than getting into the lane for easy looks (and creating easy looks for teammates).
I think the Raps have got this one. It won’t be a blowout, but they’ll get the early lead and this time, hang on to it and pick up their third win in a row, this one by nine points.
Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets, Toronto Raptors, Vince Carter
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