The Raptors are in Milwaukee for the second time this season, and for the second time, it’s the second night of a back-to-back. In neither instance did the Bucks play the day before. How, exactly is that fair? Sometimes I wonder about these schedule makers.

Anyway, with O’Neal and Calderon back in the T-Dot, this’ll be a tough one for the Raps to win. Yes, they beat the Magic without them, but can they do it two games in a row?

If Andrew Bogut doesn’t play for Milwaukee, that should help - he’s got a hamstring problem or somesuch. I’ve blogged about it before, Bogut generally kills us early and then the rest of the Bucks decide it’s time to get their own and stop giving him the ball.

Of course, last time out, they did give it to him down the stretch and he single-handedly kept the Bucks in the game… but Toronto pulled it out when he didn’t touch the ball in the final two minutes.

Somehow, five other Bucks have attempted more shots than Bogut - Jefferson, Redd, Charlie, Sessions and even Luke Ridnour - even though Bogut shoots it at 56% and plays the third-most minutes on the team. Oh well, what do I know. Maybe he only ever looks that good against Toronto!

I believe Ramon Sessions is also hurt; he’s having a great season but the Bucks still have Redd, Jefferson and Mbah a Moute, not to mention our old friend Charlie V, who are all capable of scoring in bunches and are the types of players the Raps have trouble defending against.

To be honest, I think the Bucks are better than their record and if Toronto plays like it’s played most of this year - as opposed to the way they’ve played the past two - it’ll be a Bucks win.

But I’d like to believe these past two games have finally instilled some much-needed confidence in this Raptors team. Beating up on a good Western team and then beating the team that crushed you in the playoffs, at home? That has to make them feel good about themselves, right?

Can it translate to on-court success? I hope so. The Raps need this one, and the next two (at Washington Wednesday, home for Memphis Friday). I said it last week, they need a winning streak of at least five to get back into it - and this is as good a chance as they’re likely to have. That’d put them at 17-20 heading into Sunday’s brutal home-at-home with Boston; we have to assume that’s two losses so it’s imperative to get some wins before then.

(Again, what is with this schedule? Two straight games against the champs on back to back nights? No other team in the NBA gets this “honor.” Why us? Sigh.)

Anyway, let’s not get ahead. Raptors gotta come out tonight and execute like they did yesterday. Hit the glass, force turnovers, don’t settle, and the offense will come, I really believe that.

I think they can do it. Raptors by 13.

You know, it’s hard to get too upset about a loss to a good team like the Trail Blazers. They’re stacked, and in fact, I feel like they’re better than their record - even though it’s pretty good at 19-12 after beating the Raptors.

Unfortunately, it is frustrating, because once again, the Raps had a big lead - 11 points before a miracle three a the halftime buzzer by Travis Outlaw cut it to eight. It’s also frustrating to think that, heading into the season, our expectations were set high enough to make us think we were in the same class as the Blazers.

But, in the past two months reality has set in and we’ve come to expect that the Raptors don’t have much of a chance against good teams, because, well, they’re not a good team themselves. And although you can clearly say there’ve been improvements - three weeks ago the Raptors were getting blown out of games completely, now at least they’re in them in the first half - it’s not enough to get them back into the race.

So we’re stuck with another middling team in another mediocre season. In other words, it’s hard to get excited or upset about anything at all - they only beat teams worse than them and never beat teams better than them, so where’s the drama?

Of course, we all know the most frustrating thing about the loss was seeing Brandon Roy dominate the fourth quarter like that. 18 points, and most of them very difficult jump shots, the kind of “give me the ball and let me create something from nothing” mindset that none of the Raptors have. And he could have been a Raptor. Sigh. That one play, where he drove left, stumbled, lost the ball, got on his feet, recovered it, and hit a fade-away? No one on the Raptors even has the balls to take that shot. Sigh. That one mistake is haunting us every time we play the Blazers.

(A bit of a tradition for me is watching Lord of the Rings; you know how Boromir and the men of Gondor call the one ring “Isildur’s Bane?” I think I’m going to start calling Bargnani “Colangelo’s Bane.”)

Actually Andrea had his best game in recent memory last night. Slump buster? I’m not holding my breath, but at least he hit some jump shots.

Oh well. The Raps roll into San Fran tonight to take on the Warriors and they’ve got a chance to finish up 3-3 on the trip. That’d be nice since I expected a 1-5 trip. Of course, I expected that “1″ to be against the “Thunder” and losing to them still hurts. A lot. They could have already guaranteed a 3-3 trip by beating the worst team in the league. Alas.

However, I don’t really think 3-3 is going to happen. I’m sure you’ve all noticed, Golden State is virtually impossible to defend - they just run up and shoot. Given the Raptors are one of the worst transition defensive teams I’ve every actually seen play professional basketball, that can be trouble. I mean on most nights you can be assured the Warriors won’t hit a high enough percentage to win, but they’ll get enough layups and open looks tonight to outscore the Raptors.

And even if they don’t shoot that well, the Raptors’ offense isn’t good enough to keep up. I know Golden State is a terrible defensive team but if you’ve seen the Raptors struggle to even get open shots, let alone hit them, then you have to fear that that will continue tonight.

Of course, it is completely possible the Warriors will stink. You never know with this Golden State team. But I don’t believe the Raps have it in them to really step up, and play aggressively enough to take the Warriors out of what they want to do. I just think Golden State will simply run them off the floor and will take it by 19.

Now, one last thing, it’s been brought to my attention in the comments that there will be a protest at Rogers headquarters regarding the TSN2 issue tomorrow, December 30. Now, it’s planned to last all day, which seems a little extreme in this weather, but if you can make it down there and support the guys who’ve put it together, that would be great. Anything to bring some sort of attention to this ridiculous impasse.

I do hope that there is a future protest planned for those morons at MLSE since this is more their fault than anyone else’s (what team signs a television contract where the games are shown on a station that’s not available on cable in their home market?).

Anyway, hopefully tomorrow goes well for these guys, they get some support and maybe some attention. It’s probably a good time to do it, you know this is usually a pretty slow news week so a station like CityTV would likely be able to send a camera crew over. Anything to get some attention and pressure on the parties involved can only help.

Here’s the details:
Tuesday December 30th, 2008
Rogers Building
333 Bloor St. East, Toronto
8 am to 5 pm

There’s a dedicated Facebook group and if you need any more info, you can email Drew at spuddaz@yahoo.com. Good luck to everyone heading down there.

So, the Raptors make their first trip ever to The Place That Isn’t Seattle tonight. Thankfully, it’s their only trip there this season. Unfortunately, they have to go back next year, and every other year from now on. Sigh.

There’s only one good thing about this team’s move from Seattle to The Place That Isn’t Seattle; the time zone. That means instead of watching a Raptors game at 10:00, we get to watch it at 8:00.

Or rather, we could… IF THE GAME WAS TELEVISED IN TORONTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dammit.

You may have noticed my question in Doug Smith’s blog mailbag today, about the playoffs and TSN2; if the Raps make it, the games could very well be aired on TSN2. Is that a joke or what?

At this point I have obvious doubts about the Raptors making the playoffs, but if they do, I’d really like to be able to see them. If only those greedy bastards at TSN and Rogers would kiss and make up or those fucking morons at MLSE would step in and fix this… but the fact that it hasn’t happened by now leads me to believe it won’t be fixed, ever. I can’t even believe we’re still talking about this… how could MLSE have allowed this to happen? It blows my mind.

As for the game, well, The “Thunder” isn’t (aren’t? What a ridiculous name) very good. They’re 2-24 and have lost 8 in a row. Yikes.

But, you may recall, this team is basically the same one that beat us - and scored 123 points on us - last season. And their strong points - Sophomores Kevin Durant and Jeff Green - play the swingman spots that we can’t defend to save our lives. And we’re not exactly coming on strong, having lost 8 of 10 ourselves!

Still, you gotta believe that if the Raps can beat anyone, it’s the “Thunder.” Right? I mean, we can beat them, right? Hoo boy.

What I’d most like to see is a good game from Chris Bosh. He needs it, and we need to see it from him. I don’t necessarily need to see a 39 point, 16 rebound night. Just a solid 24 on 8-13 shooting - no three-pointers - and 8-10 from the free throw line, with 11 boards would be nice. Something to remind us that he’s an all-star level player. Because he hasn’t been playing like it lately. Come on, Chris, we know you have it in you. Bring it tonight, my friend.

I’d also like to see Kapono get back on track. He was rock solid his first two games as a starter, and disappointing the past three. He didn’t even take a triple last game, and I thought we’d worked through that phase where he thought he was allergic to the three-point line. I’d like to see him get back on track.

As for the other struggling Raptor… well, I don’t really know what to say about Andrea Bargnani. Hey, I remember he had a four-point play against the Sonics two seasons ago. Maybe he can get something like that today and that’ll be the slump buster. He’s missing three-quarters of his shots these days, and most aren’t even close… he really needs to get something going on offense. I still like his defense and shot-blocking, but his rebounding isn’t good enough for us to play 4 on 5 with him on offense.

Well, I believe that, even with their struggles, the Raptors can take this one. I’d like it to be a blowout like last Friday’s game in Jersey, but I suspect it won’t be. Raptors by 8.

Tonight, the Raptors welcome the Dallas Mavericks to town. You may note the Mavs have won 7 of their last 10; meanwhile the Raps have lost 7 of their last 10, and they boast a stellar 1-5 record against Western Conference teams.

Oh, wait, one more stat: Mavs are second in the league in rebounding. Raptors are second last.

Let’s just say: I’d take the road team tonight if I were you.

I’m curious to see this Mavericks team. Nowitzki has apparently been playing great of late, they’ve got a promising youngster in Jose Barea, Jason Terry’s playing solid, and I really want to see if Kidd looks more comfortable than he did last season.

Oh, wait, I don’t get to watch this game? It’s not on TV? Right, I forgot, the Toronto Raptors don’t show all their games IN TORONTO. Have I mentioned what kind of morons they have working at MLSE? That’s right, fucking morons. That’s the kind.

Anyway, I’m not going to waste too much time on this one. If one thing is clear this season, it’s that the Raptors can’t beat teams that are “better” than them, and I don’t think anyone is disputing the Mavs are better. In fact, the Raps don’t even usually show up against teams that are better than them. So it’ll be a Raptors loss, probably by about 23 points or so.

On much more interesting topics, how about those trade rumours? Good times, huh? As if Shawn Marion is the answer this team needs… give me a break. Oh, how about the Antoine Walker rumour? The guy lost his game about three years ago, for God’s sake! And he wasn’t that great to begin with! How, in what conceivable way, would Antoine Walker help this team!?

Marion, you could at least make an argument for. He rebounds, which we need, he defends, and he runs the floor, which we’re trying to do. I just don’t know if he fits in, or if he’ll ever get back to the level he was in Phoenix - Nash makes a lot of guys look better than they are. Still, what do the Raps have that the Heat want? I don’t think I’m ready to give up on Jermaine O’Neal, and outside of him, the Raps would have to give up half their roster (which I’m not opposed to, by the way, but our roster is pretty thin as it is) to match salaries with Marion. I don’t see that one happening.

I anticipated a trade would happen this week, and I’m a little disappointed it hasn’t. I guess it still could, but I assumed it would happen on the 15th or 16th. As I said before, I didn’t think anything major was going down, but I thought SOMETHING was gonna happen. Oh well. As long as it isn’t signing Antoine Walker…!

Hard to be too disappointed in yesterday’s loss to the Hornets. They are, obviously, a much better team than the Raptors, and losing to them is expected.

But in a way, you have to feel a little like the Raptors let an opportunity slip away. After all, they kept it close all day, were only one or two shots away from changing the game. And when you consider that the Hornets were without Tyson Chandler, one of those high-energy defensive hustlers who’s a killer on the offensive glass - you know, the exact type of players who gives the Raptors fits - this was probably as good a chance as any for the Raptors to steal a win over a good Western Conference team.

Alas, the Raps got virtually nothing from the wing position on the offensive end, and it killed them in the end. Hardly a shocking story if you’ve watched the Raptors all year long, but considering that they’d gotten good contributions from Moon, Graham and Kapono the past two, and considering Anthony Parker was back in the mix, you had to figure things were finally on the right track. Not just yet it seems.

Moon played well defensively, pulling in another 8 rebounds - great to see him getting back on the glass - and blocking two shots, but he proved his jumper is still as erratic as ever, going just 2-7 and 1-4 from downtown. Still, he helped out a lot on Chris Paul and when the Raps needed a stop with 35 seconds left, he forced Paul into an incredibly tough driving layup that missed. (Naturally, Moon’s teammates didn’t back him and David West got the rebound and that sealed the game. Sigh).

Kapono got a lot of nice looks on the day, but simply couldn’t bury them. I’m not too concerned about this either way - he got two contested-but-good looks in the fourth quarter that would have brought the Raps within three I believe, and there’s not a soul on this team I’d rather have taking the shots. But, he couldn’t get them to drop; it just happens that way sometimes. Of course, unlike Moon, he didn’t do much else on the floor, notching just one board and three assists. And he was consistenly late on defensive rotations - though he wasn’t the only one - and James Posey and Rasual Butler droped in a combined 10 triples.

Rasual Butler… I mean, really. Rasual Butler is beating us with two late fourth-quarter threes and 16 points? Sigh. Good for him, and good on the Hornets for getting a contribution out of him. Naturally, the Raps can’t find quality second-tier players like him, and are forced to recycle duds like Jake Voskhul. Sigh.

As for the other wings, Graham and Parker just couldn’t find a groove and didn’t contribute anything.

Up front, Jermaine O’Neal was solid, with 7-10 shooting for 19 points, along with 7 boards. He was aggressive, which he needed to be; with Chandler out, JO had a big advantage against Hilton Armstrong and he worked it effectively.

But Chris Bosh struggled mightily from the field, going just 6-17, with most of them in the 17-foot range. He was working the drive effectively - he got the line 15 times and finished with 25 points - but when the jumper isn’t falling, he needs to be driving every time. And I know David West is a big, strong presence, but he doesn’t have great defensive footwork and I think with a couple more drives Bosh could have gotten him into some foul trouble, and gotten him out of the game. Alas. I just hope Bosh is keeping notes for next time.

And geez, Chris, if you’re gonna shoot threes - which I wish you wouldn’t, but if you are - at least get your feet set, man. No one’s coming to guard you out there, so you don’t need to rush it.

And our only big off the bench is Andrea Bargnani, and I’m probably beginning to sound like a broken record, but he struggled from the field. 2-7, four points. One board, only 11 minutes played. I wonder if Triano’s patience is wearing out? Those numbers are Jake Voskuh-esque!

Just kidding. Don’t wanna disrespect Jake, he’s been a professional his whole career and having another big on the bench never hurts. And since we’re up to 14 bodies a 2-for-1 style trade is a possibility, so I can’t complain about that.

Anyway, back to yesterday… at the end of the day, you gotta give the Hornets credit. We took away Paul’s ability to get to the hoop very effectively, but every time he kicked out, his teammates hit their shots. The Raptors struggled from the field, and the Hornets didn’t let them get back into it. I thought both teams played OK, but the Hornets were just a bit better, and they got a well-deserved win.

Now, tonight, it’s Vince’s second and final appearance at the ACC this season as the Nets are back in town. Nets played a back-to-back Friday-Saturday, this is a back-to-back for us, so both teams are probably a little tired. Luckily it’s a rare home back-to-back so the Raps got to sleep in their own beds; we’ll see if homecourt advantage has an impact.

Vince bounced back from his 0-13 game with a 33-point game against the Bulls Saturday night in Chicago, but the Nets still lost; they’re on a three-game skid. Raps of course have won two of three and the chance to take three of four is right there. Time to start winning consistently and not just trade wins and losses.

With two games under their belts, these two teams know each other pretty well. Raptors have to stop Harris and Carter and hope the bigs don’t dominate the glass; Nets have to stop Bosh and O’Neal and hope the wings stay cold. I always gave the Nets the big edge in coaching before, as Lawrence Frank always seemed to confuse the Raps with something, but with Triano at the helm, we’ve closed the gaps. I expect the Nets have made adjustments from Friday; previously, I’d expect the Raps to do the same old thing but now, under Jay, I expect some adjustments of our own.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some more of Carter creating from the top, with Harris at a wing spot. That would allow the defense to react to Carter - and, knowing the Raptors, scrambling somewhat - and if he can kick out to Harris, Harris will have a much easier time creating against a defense that isn’t set.

Anyway, that’s just my idea. For the Raps, well, they need to find a way to get Bosh and O’Neal deeper post position; that’ll open the floor up for the shooters and for them. And we need Moon to continue to bring the same energy off the defensive end that he did early Friday.

By all accounts, no one was frustrated or upset after yesterday’s loss, no one was hanging their heads. The Raptors appear to have bought into the new coach and are playing with some renewed confidence. They’ve made some good steps the past week or so. I’m not ready to declare they’re back, but tonight would be another big step forward.

I think the Raps will pull it out at home: Toronto by 11.

Of course, I won’t be able to see the game, thanks to those bungling idiots at MLSE and the greedy bloodsuckers at TSN and Rogers. Fuck you, all of you. You’re a bunch of assholes. I can’t believe you fucking idiots haven’t solved this problem yet. I hope all of your advertisers love the 1800 viewers you get for tonight’s game. Fucking morons.

It’s the Nets again, this time in New Jersey. I won’t go over the details of the last game against Vince and the boys - it’s too painful to think about - but we all remember it was a horrific loss, one of the worst in Raptors history.

It’ll also go down as one of the games - along with the Denver Debacle - that got Sam Mitchell fired. Hearing Colangelo say that he “just can’t get the New Jersey game out of my mind” following the coaching change was very telling.

The Raps may have won Wednesday, but they’ve still dropped 7 of their last ten. Meanwhile, the Nets lost Wednesday, but they’ve actually won 7 of 10.

Perhaps not coincidentally, both of those strings started that night in Toronto.

But, the past is the past and we’ll see tonight if the Raptors can avenge that loss, and we’ll see if “The Turnaround” really is in effect.

Devin Harris has been playing out his mind. Honestly, I never thought the guy was this good… but damn. 24.8 ppg on 49% shooting? 6.2 assists? Those are some pretty unbelievable numbers. Vince is putting up his usual 22/5/5, and together they form the highest-scoring backcourt in the NBA.

The Raps, obviously, need a repeat performance by the swingmen from Wednesday if they want to win tonight. If you’ll remember last game, Chris Bosh dominated the Nets up front - they really had no idea what to do with him - but I don’t think that’ll happen tonight, because Lawrence Frank is too smart for that. And he’s got history with shutting Bosh down.

He’ll realize this time out that letting Bosh get his isn’t the way to go, and that the better strategy - played out over these past 10 games - is to double and trap Bosh, and make the wings beat you. I’m certain we’ll see the Nets moving a lot faster on the double tonight.

That should free things up a little for Jermaine O’Neal, perhaps. O’Neal struggled last game, before going down in the third quarter with the knee injury, despite the fact that he was being guarded by rookie Brook Lopez. I’d really like to see Jermaine attack Lopez, especially if the Nets are paying extra attention to Bosh like I expect.

Defensively for the Raptors, I assume Jamario Moon and Jason Kapono will get the starting nods again tonight, and I assume we’ll see Moon guarding Vince and Kapono on Bobby Simmons. Simmons isn’t nearly as big a factor in the Nets offense as Carter, obviously - less than 7 shots a game and more than half of those are from downtown. So that should minimize Kapono’s defensive deficiencies, and if Moon can play with the energy he brought last game, he should be a little more effective at slowing down Vince than Kapono.

Bosh and O’Neal should have an advantage over Yi and Lopez, the real challenge - as always - will be keeping them, and their reserves Josh Boone and Ryan Anderson off the glass. Crafty vets like Bosh and O’Neal should be able to do so. I’d like to see both of them with double-doubles tonight.

Unfortunately, I really don’t really know how Calderon is going to be able to slow down Devin Harris. Harris has shown he can take just about anybody, and Calderon has trouble keeping guys in front of him, so this spells mismatch from start to finish. I just hope Calderon continues his aggressive play from the past couple of games and makes Harris work on the other end.

To be honest, these teams are a pretty cool mismatch on paper - the Nets are strong in the backcourt, the Raps are strong in the frontcourt. The former won game one, which will come out on top in game two?

Not only that, but we all know Lawrence Frank has owned Sam Mitchell for the past two years, so now we get a chance to see if a new coach can make some adjustments in turn. I think this is a great test for Triano; when the teams are evenly matched, the coach can make a big difference. Let’s see if Triano earns his pay tonight!

I have decided that positivity is the way to go, especially in games where the teams appear to be evenly matched. I choose to believe that the win the other night was the start of a good thing, and I believe they’ll continue that - and build on it - tonight in New Jersey.

Raptors by 7.

TJ Ford, Jermaine O’Neal, big trade, first game, Ford-Jose, blah blah blah. We know all about that and I blogged about the reception I expect TJ will get before (a likely mixture of boos and cheers, when it should be, in my opinion, all cheers) and while it makes for nice drama, it doesn’t matter one damn bit tonight.

If both teams were playing well and in the thick of it, I’d love the added drama. But both teams need a win in a big way so I really don’t give a crap about the rest. Winning is all that matters.

And besides, we all know the real matchup we want to see is Stephen Graham vs. Joey Graham!!

Seriously, looking at these two teams, you have to think that realistically the Pacers are actually better on paper than the Raptors. They’ve got a good point guard (obviously), but also a solid back-up in Jarrett Jack. There’s Danny Granger, who’s blossoming into an all-star. They’ve got Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster, who are pests around the glass (and Murphy can shoot, too). They’ve got our old friend Rasho Nesterovic, still solid in the middle, with 10 points and 5.4 boards in 25 minutes. Somehow, Marquis Daniels has resurrected his career, to the tune of 16 points and 6 boards a game as the starting 2-guard. And, they’re still missing Mike Dunleavy with some kind of knee trouble.

In other words, they’ve surrounding their budding star, Granger - who is capable of creating his own shot - with actual NBA talent. Actual NBA talent that has beaten both the Lakers and Celtics, and took the Celts to overtime last game before losing on Sunday.

Meanwhile we’ve got three quality NBA players in Bosh, O’Neal, and Calderon, and they’re all struggling. None of them can create their own shot. And the rest of our roster is a mess. We’re on a five-game losing streak with a point differential of minus-20.

All right, all right, I’ll stop taking shots at the roster, it’s getting tired. It’s not good. We all know it.

No word yet on whether or not Jay Triano switches Bargnani out of the starting lineup; I wasn’t sure yesterday if this was the right move, but today - after watching Bargnani struggle to do anything productive even in garbage time - I’m pretty damn close to calling Joey Graham’s number. In fact I may have down so this morning but I was still kinda fuming from the game and not really in my right mind. Look at the numbers it seems clear that Joey’s earned it… But I still hesitate because we’ve all seen enough “bad Joey” to know this might be a huge mistake.

Still, anyone can see that Bargnani can’t guard threes. At least it’s Graham’s natural position. No one knows what the hell Bargnani is, but it’s becoming clear, it’s not a three.

And with Humphries still sidelined, doesn’t it make sense to keep Bargnani on the bench to back up JO and Bosh? I dunno… I fully understand the “play your best five guys” mindset… but it doesn’t appear to be working right now. How long do you stick with it?

Now, I know Triano is installing his new offense, and I like a lot of the movement that we see out of guys like Parker and Kapono. But you can’t forget the pick and roll. It shouldn’t be used every play, obviously, as it was earlier this year, but you can’t deny that Chris and Jose are effective out of it. So even though we need new things on offense, I’d still like to see those two in the pick and roll a few times a game. We need to get Chris going and the pick and roll is a way to do that. The play itself was never bad, but the amount we were using it was. So don’t throw the play away “just because.”

And when you consider that Murphy isn’t a great defender, Bosh should have an advantage there.

Rebounding continues to be an issue for the Raptors. I just don’t understand why they don’t box out. I know it’s “easy to say, harder to do” but come on… this is basic basketball, and you know, basic common sense - as Jack pointed out yesterday, a long shot from the left corner is likely going to bounce long right. So be prepared on that side! (Joey wasn’t in this case yesterday). And it’s not like we’re running a small lineup out there! Box out, for fuck’s sake.

I spoke earlier of “The Turnaround.” I’m capitalizing it now because it’s that important. We need something to swing our way, and we need it to last for a decent stretch, and we need it soon. Even a four wins/two losses stretch over the next six games would do, just to give the team - and its fans - some confidence.

If The Turnaround started against TJ and the Pacers, well, that would be just a little sweeter, wouldn’t it?

You know what, fuck the negativity. We may be down, but we’re not out, right? I still have faith in my team. Not much - I’m digging down low to get it - but it’s there. I believe in the Raptors. I believe they’ll come out fired up, because it’s the Pacers, and because they need a win and they know it. I believe they’re tired of losing. I believe they’re getting Triano’s system down and that it’s gonna start coming together.

I believe! The Turnaround starts tonight!

Raptors by 10.

The Raptors head down the road to Cleveland tonight to face the Cavs in what is sure to be another road drubbing.

Now, we all know how horrendous that west coast trip was, but let’s look at some stats here. In the Raps’ past three road games, they were outscored by an average of 26 points, giving up 119 a game; they shot only 39.5%, and allowed their opponents to shoot 53.9%; they were outrebounded 50.6/37.6, a minus-13 differential.

So that’s how the Raps have been doing on the road lately. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 11-0 at home, where they shoot 50.6 per cent and score 107.5 points per game. They also happen to have the best rebounding differential in the league, and hold opponents to the lowest shooting percentage in the league. Given that we don’t rebound and we take mostly jump shots, well…

Oh, and in case you forgot, they also have that LeBron James guy. He’s, um, pretty good.

He’s no doubt salivating at the prospect of taking on Andrea Bargnani and our motley cast of small forwards. Andrea obviously can’t guard James (no one can, but LeBron will embarrass Andrea I expect) but he can’t even do anything to offset James on the other end. James is strong enough and quick enough to take away any advantage Andrea might have. The thought of the Andrea/LeBron matchup turns my stomach… expect James to have 30 by halftime.

Regardless of the matchup, Andrea, to say the least, is struggling right now. I’m really not sure what to make of him, or his role on this team. His defensive improvements are significant, and gives me hope that maybe some of his less-defensively-minded teammates might also be able to improve. I love the 1.68 blocks per game.

But I wonder about his offensive role as the starting SF. He doesn’t get many touches when he starts, since Bosh and O’Neal are - rightfully - the focal points. Even when he has a significant matchup advantage - like the other night against 6′6″ CJ Miles - the Raptors never go to him in the post. It’s hard to find enough touches with all those guys out there, and besides, the refs seem to call him for a lot of really cheap fouls in the post.

When he plays at the other forward spot or center, he’s generally quicker than most bigs but still a little awkward on his feet; he gets a lot of travel calls or offensive fouls, and doesn’t draw many fouls (he’s shooting 92% from the line but gets there less than twice a game.) He’s still got the advantage that most opposing bigs won’t come out to guard him, but his shot, sadly, isn’t falling consistently.

Here’s some stats. First 8 games of the season, off the bench:

9.4 ppg, on 54% shooting (50% from three), with 4 boards a game.

Next 5, as the starting small forward:

17 ppg, on 47% shooting (46% from three), with 5.6 boards a game.

Then after O’Neal went down he switched to starting C for three games, then moved back to starting SF the past three:

8.8 points, on 32% shooting (23% from three) with 6 boards a game.

As you can see, a sharp decline in the shooting percentages. He’s reached double-figures just once in the past five games. If he’s not scoring he’s not taking advantage of his abilities on offense, and since most of the time opposing SFs have an offensive advantage (in quickness) on him, he’s really not helping the team by starting. For all his defensive improvements, there isn’t anyone of his size and foot speed that can D up one on one against an athletic SF. His defensive abilities are much better suited to a center or PF role, where he can match speed with opposing players and be in position to help out on defense with the shot blocking.

So what’s the answer? I hate to take him out of the starting lineup because I think part of the problem last year was he was jerked around so much… but I really think he might be more effective off the bench, playing PF or C. There’s just not enough room on the floor or enough touches for him, JO and Bosh, and with his shooting slump, you wouldn’t wanna give it to him anyway. Perhaps playing against second-string centers and forwards he might get it back?

Of course, that leaves the question of who you start in his place. Moon can’t start, because, well, he’s been awful all year. He won’t drive and his defense has regressed about a million-fold. Remember that game last year where he locked down Shawn Marion and wouldn’t even let him get the ball? Now his “defense” consists of jumping at every head fake he sees.

Then there’s Kapono… at the start of the year, I thought he’d be the best starter, but that assumed he’d find his role on offense - in other words, launching jumpers. The way he’s playing, with that “dribble-off-my leg” drive and the “I don’t want to shoot unless I’ve got 10 feet” mindset, he wouldn’t provide enough on offense to make up for what he’d give up on D.

There’s only one guy who’s played his way into an increased role, and that’s Joey Graham. He’s played great as of late, being aggressive on both ends of the floor and not making too many mistakes. Problem with Joey is that there’s a 99.99 per cent chance he’ll regress back to his usual boneheaded ways and then what do you do? Make yet another lineup change? Is that really what we want?

I really don’t know the answer here… well, the real answer is “make a trade for a real wing player” but since that’s not going to happen… I guess you throw your best five guys out there and hope for the best! And that’s JO, Bosh, Parker, Jose… and Bargnani.

Tonight, that best won’t be anywhere near enough. It’s not gonna be a pretty one, folks. I almost don’t want to watch because I just know it’s gonna be ugly. Like “I want to stick a fork in my eye” ugly.

I’m sure a lot of you are thinking that the Raps might have turned things around Sunday, that they played a lot better and it might be the start of some good things. But I just can’t put much stock into a loss where they blew a 16-point lead to a West-coast team playing their final game of a five-game East-coast road trip. They did some good things, for sure, but doing them at home against a tired Blazers team is not the same as doing them on the road against the best home team in the league.

I didn’t think the Cavs would be any better this year than they were last year - all they really added was Mo Williams and I didn’t think he’d make much of an impact. But I guess he has, and perhaps a training camp with all the pieces from last year’s trade - Wally S, Delonte West and Ben Wallace - has made the chemistry better. Or maybe LeBron is just that good.

Regardless, this team has the right pieces at the right positions, they’ve got a deep bench, and they’ve put together an amazing start to this season. Since the Raptors’ roster is full of holes, they’ve got no bench and they’ve proven that they simply can’t compete with good teams, especially on the road, this will be a joke of a game and an easy Cleveland win.

Cavs by 37.

So, it’s the NBA’s newest coach against the NBA’s longest serving coach tonight in Utah. Um, who do you think might have the advantage? Jay’s going for his first win - well, second, if you count the fill-in job he did last year - while Jerry Sloan is going for win #1,102.

This is a tough preview to write, because I really don’t know what to expect in this game. From the Raptors standpoint, we can’t expect too much to change - after all, Triano’s only had a day and a half on the job and roster is what it is.

What’s impossible to predict is the emotional effect that a new voice can bring; sometimes, just having that different guy on the bench produces an energy level the team hasn’t seen before. So while they may not do anything drastically different, the Raptors may be inspired to actually play harder and execute better on the floor.

As for the Jazz, well, it appears Carlos Boozer won’t play; Andrei Kirilenko and Matt Harpring are questionable; and Deron Williams is having a tough time recovering from ankle problems (I would know, he’s on my fantasy team).

Nevertheless, when you’re a struggling point guard, playing Jose Calderon and his patented Matador Defense is the cure-all, isn’t it?

Sigh.

Anyway, without knowing who’s gonna play, it’s tough to predict how the Jazz will do. They’re 8-3 at home - it’s always tough for road teams in Utah, and the Raps haven’t won there since 2004 - but oddly enough, just 2-7 against the Eastern conference this year.

Regardless of who plays, you can be sure the Jazz will execute their plays and give 100 per cent on defense. They’re kind of the anti-Raptors in that respect. It’s amazing how disciplined Sloan’s teams are.

Ronnie Brewer is having a solid year - 13/3/3 on 48% shooting - and if our perimeter defense is as bad as it’s been lately, he and Kyle Korver will likely have field days. Mehmet Okur is usually a tough matchup, but with our versatile big men (I would assume either Bosh or Bargnani would guard Okur, with O’Neal on the much more physical Paul Millsap) we should be able to hold him in check.

The Jazz have been starting CJ Miles at small forward, and while he doesn’t feature much in their offense, he could be a tough matchup for the Raptors (assuming Triano sticks with the big three frontline of Bosh, Bargnani and O’Neal). With O’Neal on Millsap, that leaves Bosh and Bargnani to handle Okur and Miles. Smaller, quicker threes are a tough guard for Bargnani or Bosh, and you just know a coach like Sloan will be able to take advantage.

The key, then, will be how - or if? - the Raptors exploit it on the other end. One recurring problem under Sam Mitchell was that the Raptors rarely, if ever, took advantage of the mismatches that having Bargnani on the floor provides. (Some people are blaming this on Jose Calderon, but as Michael Grange reported yesterday, Sam was calling plays every time down the floor… and the play was Horns Up - high pick and roll - 70% of the time.)

I know it can be tough to think of Bargnani as a top option with Bosh and JO out there, but honestly… if 6′6″ Miles is guarding him, if they don’t go to Bargnani in the post early and often, I’m going to be extremely disappointed in Triano. That’s his first real test, in my mind.

Besides, given how assertive Bargnani has been on offense, and given JO’s struggles shooting the ball, I’d say Bargnani probably should be the second offensive option on any given play. And if he’s got a 6′6″ height advantage, he’s gotta get the rock.

The Raptors will really catch a break if both Boozer and Kirilenko are out, and it’s gonna be up to Triano to ensure the team takes advantage - the Raptors will have a serious edge in size and they’ve got to hit the glass, get out and run, and when things slow down, use that height to score some points on post-ups.

Assuming both of those guys are out, I think the Raptors will be up to the task and will win by 10 - I really think the emotional impact of the coaching change will carry them through.

Raptors in Denver for the kickoff of what I’m prepared to call “The December Death March.” Not only did they just play the Lakers, but now it’s Denver (12-6, 11-3 since the trade), then Utah (11-7 and getting healthy), Portland at home (12-6), and the LeBrons (14-3, undefeated at home) in Cleveland.

You’d think it’d let up after that, but then it’s the TJ Ford reunion show, and two games against Vince and Little Larry Frank - with a game against New Orleans Sandwiched in between.

At least it quiets down after that, right? Oh, wait. It’s a Dallas at home, followed by a six-game Western trip. And then Denver at home on New Year’s Eve.

Given the Raptors’ inability to beat good teams, well, let’s see… they can beat Seattle, I know that much, and probably the Clippers… they should beat Indy and split with New Jersey, right? Right. Well, so that’s four wins, which makes it a 4-12 month.

Um… yeah… that, um, well, that’s not very good, is it?

Now, obviously, the Raptors can and likely will beat some of those “better” opponents. But since you can say that about any team, you know they can lose to some of those “lesser” opponents. I’d lay money on a 7-9 month which, after the 8-8 December, leaves the Raptors at 15-17 entering the New Year.

Is that good enough? Well, given how many other teams in the east are also “middling” - The Raptors are one of nine teams within 4 games of .500 - that’s probably good enough to leave them in the top eight of the conference.

Of course, January won’t be much easier for the Raps - they play Houston, Orlando, Boston twice, Chicago twice, Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix before the 23rd.

And there’s the problem. The Raptors struggle so much to get wins, that there simply isn’t any easy stretch in which they can make up any ground until the end of March - when they play their only homestand longer than three games, hosting Charlotte, the Clips, the Bucks, Seattle, and Chicago - and it may be too late by then. They also struggle so much to score that the team never gets to rest anyone and by that time, the starters might be dead on their feet. And of course, as I’ve mentioned before, the Sam Mitchell Raptors have proven themselves incapable of going on winning streaks, so add it all up and, well, as I’ve said before, I don’t think the playoffs are a certainty with this team. Winning a round certainly isn’t going to happen.

I just don’t have a lot of confidence in this roster, as you can tell, to win many games.

As for tonight, well, look for more of Chris Bosh getting pushed around by Chris Anderson, Nene and Kenyon Martin if Jermaine O’Neal doesn’t come back. Heck, even if he does, he’ll undoubtedly be rusty. Chauncey Billups owned us in Detroit, no doubt he’ll own us here.

If Carmelo Anthony plays - he’s nursing a sore elbow - he’s got a size and strength advantage over Moon, Graham, Kapono, Parker… pretty much anyone we can throw at him. Hopefully he’ll be less than 100% or have one of those games where he seems to float around half trying, that were so frequent in his early career.

Melo had a great season last year - his scoring was down from the year before but all his other numbers were up. He averaged 25 points and 7.5 boards, while shooting 49% and 35% from three. It looked to me like he was taking the next step.

This year, even though they’re a better team, and he’s got a true point guard for the first time since, um, ever… his scoring is down below 20 and he’s shooting under 40%. (Still rebounding, though - up to 8.4). Is it early season woes and post-trade chemistry? Is the elbow injury to blame? Or is he taking a step back?

Maybe it’s the hair! I used to think that womens haircut of his was one of the worst do’s I’d ever seen. It got so long last year I started to believe it was some sort of bizarre WNBA cross-promotion, that David Stern was paying him millions to grow it long enough to join the sisters league and make it relevant. But now he’s coiffed like a man and he can’t shoot the rock (and the WNBA is still irrelevant) so maybe he needs to grow it back.

I guess what has to be frightening to the other Western conference teams is that, if they’re 11-3 since the trade and Melo is struggling, how good will they be when he and Chauncey get on track together? Let’s just hope it doesn’t start tonight.

Thankfully for the Raps, Denver is a little thin on the bench, just like we are. Of course, they start four NBA-quality starters, while we start two, but hey. And while their bench isn’t much, they’ve do have those hustle guys - Anderson and Renaldo Balkman, who killed the Raptors in New York last year - that we can’t seem to find.

So even though they’re not “deeper” than us necessarily, what they do have is NBA veterans who know their roles. We have guys who shouldn’t even be on an NBA roster.

Anyway. Depth or no depth, this team is too fast and too physical for the Raptors to play with. Jermaine O’Neal would help, but not enough. This won’t be as bad as the last time the Raps flew to Denver - a 30-point loss - but it won’t be pretty either. Nuggets by 16.