Back to the scene of the crime! The crime, of course, being how awful the Raptors played in Orlando in last year’s first-round playoff exit. They were terrible, let’s not mince any words.

Orlando returns pretty much the same; they’ve added Michael Peitrus on the wing, replacing Maurice Evans in the starting lineup. Toronto, of course, had added Jermaine O’Neal and he should help defend against Dwight Howard.

Howard is a beast. He obliterated the Raptors last spring, averaging 19-18. Yes, that’s 18 boards per game. He’s putting up his usual gaudy numbers this year, 22 and 14, and actually, what’s amazing is that he doesn’t score more. No one can stop the guy! Of course, it doesn’t help that he’s shooting only 50% on free throws. He shoots almost 12 a game! And makes just over 6! Think about that. If he shot 75%, that’s almost three more points per game! He’s basically throwing these stats away by not becoming a better free throw shooter. It’s actually a little sad that he’s not willing to put the work into it.

Of course, they don’t seem to be suffering for it. They’re 7-3 and have won 3 straight. Raps are 5-4 and have lost 4 of 6, and haven’t beaten a playoff-caliber team yet.

It’ll be interesting to see how the new starting lineup fares against the Magic. If you’ll recall, Bargnani started a couple games at the SF position in the playoffs and well, it wasn’t pretty. He was overmatched by Hedo Turkoglu. Of course, this year’s Bargnani appears to be a much more capable defender. I’ve been suitably impressed with Andrea’s game on the defensive end; his offense is still a little inconsistent but he’s contributing on D every possession, which he didn’t do last year. Plus, he’s got a capable help defender and shot blocker behind him in O’Neal, which he didn’t have last year. So I don’t think it’ll be as much of a mismatch as it was last year.

On the other end, Bosh can’t allow himself to get complacent against Rashard Lewis. Lewis is long and athletic, but I don’t believe he has the foot speed to keep up with Bosh. Bosh needs to be driving on him every time - making Dwight Howard come over to help, and that should either get Howard in foul trouble, leave Jermaine open for dunks and putbacks. But, if Bosh plays like he did in the playoffs last year - settling for long jumpers, not getting to the line - it’s going to be a long night.

My personal strategy, although it’s one I hate, has to be to foul Dwight Howard

No word yet on if Calderon plays, but if he does, he’s got to play some defense on Jameer Nelson. We made him look like Isiah Thomas in last year’s playoffs; as good as Turkoglu was, I’d say Nelson was their second best player (behind Howard) because he did so many things - he really forced the defense to react to him (and naturally, the Raptors’ defense reacted poorly).

I have to be honest, I don’t have high hopes for this one. I think Orlando simply has too many offensive weapons, and even if the Raps play a great defensive game - which we know they won’t - they’ll still put up a lot of points. The Raptors, meanwhile, have struggled to score all year long, and I can’t imagine the size and length of Orlando is going to lead to easy buckets on Toronto’s behalf. Truth be told, I expect an Orlando blowout, by about 17.

So at what point do we officially push the panic button? Is it now?

No, I don’t think so. (Though I am dusting off said button and getting it ready.)

Yes, three straight losses is bad. Yes, the play of Bosh and Bargnani has been a concern. Yes, the lack of offense is disconcerting.

But… it’s still early in the season. Let’s not forget that - this is only game #5.

Granted, before the season, it looked like the Raps had an easy early schedule - I expected a 5-1 start heading into the Chicago game. That makes this stretch hard to stomach.

At least last night wasn’t one of the “bad” losses.

After an awful start in which the Raptors - like Tuesday - repeatedly failed to get back in transition, Sam Mitchell called a timeout and the Raptors finally seemed to get it - they finally started to actually run back down the floor. For the rest of the game, the Raptors played pretty solid defense; they were a little slow to rotate a couple of times on Keith Bogans and Hedo Turkoglu, but for the most part, they packed it inside well, doubled quickly and rotated well.

In fact I’d say they handled Dwight Howard pretty well, “limiting” him to 17 - but he never got in a rhythm. Lewis and Turkoglu hit some very impressive, very difficult shots, and Bogans, well… You kind of expect Lewis and even Turkoglu to get theirs, but Bogans? I didn’t think Keith Bogans was still in the league! And he killed us. Sigh.

When the Raps finally caught up, it was Jameer Nelson - the worst shooter on the floor and the one guy I don’t usually mind the Raps leaving open - who buried us with a three followed by a driving layup. Another Bogans three didn’t help either, and the Raps couldn’t hit a shot, and that was that.

That was pretty much the story of the night really - other than the sloppy D in the opening five minutes - the Raps’ inability to hit the shots they normally hit. In fact overall on offense, they didn’t look good; they weren’t moving the ball, weren’t getting the penetration they need to kick-start things… if it wasn’t for Dixon and Bosh simply deciding the go to the hole, they never would have gotten back into it.

For most of game, I felt like the Magic - who were moving the ball around the perimeter, working the drive and dish, passing out of double-teams to open shooters - were playing “Raptors basketball.” That kind of play is what the Raptors need - it’s what made them successful last season and in the first two games. For some reason they’ve gone away from it. As I said, Bosh and Dixon kept them in it last night, but at some point, you gotta hit some shots. This is a team built on shooting - they have got to work the offense to get good shots. And it’s not like it’s a complicated offense - it isn’t even really an offense, it’s just fundamental basketball. Swing the ball, hit the open man. The Raptors simoly have to start doing that.

The most upsetting thing last night - really, the last three games - has been the play of Jason Kapono and Anthony Parker: combined, 4-17, 11 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists. And they each played 28+ minutes. Completely unacceptable contributions from the swingman positions, especially when you consider their opponents - Bogans and Lewis - went a combined 15-27 for 41 points, 13 boards, and 7 assists.

• As for bright Raptors spots…
• TJ and Jose continue to take care of the ball - only one turnover for TJ, zero for Jose last night.
• Bosh going 14-14 from the line.
• Bargnani driving the lane when the shot wasn’t dropping. (Though what was with the ticky-tack fouls he kept picking up in the post? Terrible calls. Let ‘em play, ref!)
• And how about Bargnani, getting back in transition after a turnover, altering a Keyon Dooling layup (forcing a miss), then running back down, and nailing an open three on the delayed break. That’s transition basketball! More, please
• Humphries’ energy. So, he got himself taken out by trying to take Howard on the baseline. Dumb play But other than that, he was hustling and crashing the boards… we need more of that, too.

So, tomorrow night in Philly. The Raps really, really need this one. Good teams simply don’t lose four in a row. They have some positives to take forward from this one - let’s hope they continue to get back on defense, and take the ball to the hole, especially when the shot’s not dropping.

Before I talk about tonight’s game, a follow-up to this morning’s post…As disappointed as I am with the loss, I am by no means pushing the panic button! It’s one game. It happens. You never want to see it happen to your team, but bad losses happen to every team, except perhaps the very elite.

You hope it’s an aberration. You only need to worry when it becomes a habit. If they bounce back tonight, it’ll be all but forgotten.

So - can they bounce back? For sure. Orlando’s an improved team over last year, and Dwight Howard is getting better and better, but the Raps match up relatively well with them, at least offensively. They better play some better defense than last night, though.

Last year, Rasho Nesterovic did a great job keeping Howard in check. I expect he’ll get some extra minutes tonight in the same role, since Chris Bosh has a tough time with him even when he’s playing well, which he clearly isn’t.

The biggest test will be how the Raptors handle Rashard Lewis. In the past two games, the Raptors have been absolutely abused by athletic swingmen - Ray Allen and Desmond Mason - and Lewis obviously falls into the same category. I wonder if Mitchell will consider moving Carlos Delfino into the starting lineup to check him?

Lewis signed that huge, $130 million contract in the offseason, that everyone universally agrees was way too much money for a career second banana. But even though he’s overpaid, the guy can still play. He’s burned the Raps a number of times over the years already.

Last night, both Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick missed the game for Orlando; no word yet on whether or not they’ll play tonight. But they only went eight players deep last night, and Howard, Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Carlos Arroyo played heavy minutes, while our starters were benched for most of the game. So hopefully, tired starters and a thin Orlando bench, as well as the trip to chilly Toronto, will make them as sluggish as the Raps were last night.

I really hope the Raps pull this one out. I want them to get that third win on the books. Last year it took them 10 games; the year before, 18. I wanted them to go 3-0 to start the year, but I’ll be happy with it taking 5 games to get there.

Raps by seven.